Polls show voters reject Berlusconi

Feb 25 2013

Italian voters have apparently rejected Silvio Berlusconi's bid for a triumphant comeback with election exit polls showing a centre-left coalition in the lead.

The Italian election has been one of the most fluid in the last two decades thanks to the emergence of a strong protest party, and was being watched closely by Italy's eurozone partners and international investors.

The decisions Italy's government makes over the next several months promise to have a deep impact on whether Europe can decisively stem its financial crisis. As the eurozone's third largest economy, its problems can rattle market confidence in the whole bloc and analysts have worried it could fall back into old habits.

Pier Luigi Bersani's coalition - which has shown a pragmatic streak in supporting tough economic reforms spearheaded by incumbent premier Mario Monti - was leading in both the Senate and the lower house of Parliament, according to exit polls.

Mr Bersani's coalition has taken 35.5% of the vote for the lower house of parliament, ahead of the centre-right coalition under Mr Berlusconi with 29%, the polls indicated. The poll by Tecne has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 %. Exit polls for the Senate showed an even stronger result for the centre-left, which was showing 37% of the vote compared with 31% for Mr Berlusconi's forces.

Mr Bersani would have to win both houses to form a stable government, and given the uncertainty of possible alliances, a clear picture of prospects for a new Italian government could take days. But the vote appeared to show that Italians both are willing to endure more economic reforms, perhaps at the hands of a centre-left that has traditionally looked out for Italian workers and their rights.

The early indications "confirm a positive result for the centre-left that is heading toward control of both houses," said Democratic Party member Cesare Damiano. "Even the markets are betting on this"

Mr Bersani, a former communist, has reform credential as the architect of a series of liberalisation reforms and has shown a willingness to join with Mr Monti, if necessary, to form a stable government. But he could be hamstrung by the more left-wing of his party.

A political movement founded by comic-turned-political agitator Beppe Grillo had 19% of the vote in the lower house, a show of anger at the political class for bringing the country to the brink of financial disaster and ignoring the needs of the rank-and-file. Mr Monti's centrist coalition had a terrible showing with 9.5%, according to Tecne's exit polls.

Mr Grillo's forces are the greatest unknown. His protest movement against the entrenched political class has gained in strength following a series of corporate scandals that only seemed to confirm the worst about Italy's establishment. If his self-styled political "tsunami," which was polling third, sweeps into parliament with a big chunk of seats, Italy could be in store for a prolonged period of political confusion that would spook the markets.